New Tobacco Is The General Trend, And Overseas Markets Continue To Grow In Q1

Basic conclusions

According to Euromonitor statistics, the global new tobacco(E-cigarette) market will reach US$66.89 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, of which the global market size of smokeless tobacco/vaporized electronic cigarette/heated tobacco(herbal heatsticks) products will be US$141.6/240.2/25.41 billion respectively , up 2.9%/14.1%/27.1% year-on-year respectively. In terms of vaping e-cigarettes, the market size of North America/Western Europe/Asia-Pacific will increase by 11.7%/13.5%/27.4% year-on-year respectively in 2021. The growth of the Asia-Pacific market is more prominent, mainly driven by the continuous and rapid growth of the Chinese market up to 54.4%. In terms of HNB(heating device manufacturer), the market size of Asia-Pacific/Eastern Europe/Western Europe in 2021 will increase by 10.0%/51.7%/39.7% year-on-year respectively. Driven by the Russian and Italian markets, the overall European HNB market has grown rapidly in recent years, and is expected to surpass the Asia-Pacific market in 2022.


Philip Morris International: New tobacco revenue in Q1 exceeded 30%, and the acquisition of Swedish Match shows strategic determination. In 22Q1, the company’s new tobacco revenue increased by 10.7% year-on-year to US$2.35 billion. The sales in Eastern Europe was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which slowed down the growth rate. IQOS ILUMA’s excellent products have boosted the continuous increase in the conversion rate of traditional smokers, and the company’s share in the main market continued to increase in Q1. The market share of Italy/Poland/Germany increased by 3.3/1.3/2.8pct to 14.8% compared with the end of 2021. /7.6%/5.9%. In addition, the company disclosed in May that its plan to acquire Swedish Match for US$16.1 billion was superimposed on the previously proposed target of over 50% of its smoke-free revenue in 2025, which fully demonstrated the company’s firm determination to develop in the new tobacco field.


Q1′s overall vaping sales continued to grow, and Juul’s share was still declining. The company’s 22Q1 global sales of electronic cigarettes still increased by 10% year-on-year to 550 million, mainly relying on the rapid expansion of the industry. However, Juul’s market share continued to decline due to the lack of its own product strength and the previous marketing strategy violated the policy trend, and its market share fell by 1pct to 26% in 22Q1. At present, Juul’s PMTA application is still under review. Since the beginning of this year, the FDA has accelerated the review speed. It is expected that Juul’s review results will soon be implemented. If the PMTA can be successfully passed, it will help the company to regain good growth in the field of atomization. In terms of HNB(heat not burn products), the current sales of IQOS in the United States are still stagnant.


British American Tobacco:
The new tobacco business has made a comprehensive breakthrough, with a revenue target of 5 billion pounds in 2025. The company’s new tobacco business will continue to grow rapidly in 2021, with revenue increasing by 42.3% year-on-year to 2.05 billion pounds, and the company has proposed a target new tobacco business revenue of more than 5 billion pounds in 2025, which has become the company’s core development direction in the future. In terms of categories, the revenue of atomized cigarettes in 2021 is +51.7% year-on-year to 930 million pounds, of which Vuse’s revenue in 2021 is +59% year-on-year to 780 million pounds, and the Alto series manufactured by Smol has become the core driver, which accounts for Vuse The proportion of revenue has been further increased to 90%, which is enough to prove the product power of Smol. In terms of HNB(heatstick supplier), relying on the excellent performance of glo Hyper in various regions, the company’s HNB business has resumed rapid growth.


Japan Tobacco: Ploom X drives the growth of the company’s Q1 harm reduction products to accelerate again. Relying on the launch of a new generation of heat-not-burn equipment, Ploom X, in August 2021, the company’s RRP product sales have grown significantly since 21Q4. In 22Q1, the company’s sales in the Japanese market increased by 33.0% year-on-year to 140 million units. 21Q4 increased by 0.2pct to 12%.