BAT adjusted market strategy: it will expand the sales of e-cigarette and heated tobacco products

As reported by cityam on February 4, British American Tobacco (BAT-heatstick manufacturer) is about to release its full-year results report. According to analysts' forecasts, BAT's total revenue in 2023 will reach £27.6 billion, of which the non-traditional tobacco(heat not burn oem) category will be around £3.46 billion, up from £2.9 billion the previous year.

It is understood that the total revenue of BAT in 2022 is 27.65 billion pounds, and the annual revenue of BAT2023 will maintain a low single-digit growth, about 3% to 5%. Among them, BAT's oral nicotine bags, heated tobacco products and e-cigarettes accounted for only 16.6% of its total group revenue. Although BAT plans to derive half of its revenue from non-combustion products (heat not burn oem)by 2035, these products still make up a small percentage of the company's total revenue for now.

At present, due to the proliferation of illegal disposable electronic cigarettes, BAT is facing difficulties in the US market, in addition to the ban on disposable electronic cigarettes announced by the British government not long ago, which also has an impact on the growth of BAT(heatsticks suppliers).

However, some analysts have a different view, and Owen Bennett, global tobacco analyst at Jefferies investment bank, pointed out that the new policy is unlikely to directly affect traditional tobacco manufacturers. He said the increased regulation would be a good thing for big tobacco because it would weed out cheaper, disposable brands.

In terms of share price, over the past year, the share price of BAT has fallen by about 24%, which includes the market will write down the value of some of its US cigarette brands, and some illegal disposable electronic cigarettes from China are also taking market share, which has intensified the challenges faced by BAT and its vendors. They also face a steady decline in demand for traditional cigarettes.

In response to the market change, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said: "Smokers continue to move to the next generation of products, including e-cigarettes, prompting BAT to take a long-term view of its combustible category assets." "While the company pays a dividend, investors may question their commitment to the stock given the underperformance of the share price and increasing regulatory and political pressure on the sector," he added.